U.S. consumer confidence rose slightly in June, lifted by falling oil prices, though concerns about the labor market deepened, according to the latest data from The Conference Board.
Confidence edges up, but labor worries grow
The Consumer Confidence Index climbed to 91.2 in June, up from a downwardly revised 90.6 in May. The survey, conducted between June 1 and 23, captured a period that included an extension of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement.
Dana M. Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board, said the increase came as lower gas prices eased inflation fears. The improvement was not consistent across all measures.
The Present Situation Index, which tracks current business and labor conditions, fell to 116.4 from 119.4 in May. While business conditions improved slightly, views on the job market worsened. The portion of consumers describing jobs as “hard to get” reached 23%, the highest since January 2021.
The Expectations Index, reflecting short-term outlooks, rose to 74.4 from 71.4. It marked the 17th consecutive month below 80, a level historically linked to an upcoming recession. Households expect little change in the job market over the next six months, though business conditions and incomes are seen improving.
A gap emerged between a slightly better economic outlook and ongoing job concerns. For many, cheaper gas may not offset stagnant wages or the struggle to find work that covers rising costs.
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Demographics and spending plans shift
Confidence differed by age, income, and political affiliation. Those under 35 reported the highest confidence, though all age groups saw declines over six months. Sentiment among income brackets was mixed. The Silent Generation experienced the sharpest drop, while Republicans grew less optimistic. Democrats and Independents reported small gains.
Inflation expectations eased. The median 12-month outlook for price increases fell compared with May, and fewer people cited war or geopolitics as economic concerns. Still, 62% believe interest rates will rise over the next year.
Spending plans for major purchases increased. More consumers said they might buy cars, homes, or furniture soon, though fewer planned to purchase appliances or electronics. Dining out and take-out remained the top service spending category, followed by streaming and personal care.
Financial outlook remains divided
Views on current finances grew more negative for the third month in a row. Roughly equal numbers described their situation as “good” or “bad.” Yet optimism about future finances improved. Recession expectations stayed low, though the share calling a downturn “somewhat likely” increased while those saying it was “not likely” decreased.
The Conference Board will release July’s data on July 28.
