Belgium’s prime minister Bart De Wever toured the Bharat Diamond Bourse in Mumbai, marking a century-long link between two historic diamond hubs amid sweeping industry change. At the same time, the world’s most recognizable natural-diamond brand entered the final phase of an ownership shift, with neither Antwerp nor Mumbai represented among the preferred bidders.
India’s Dominance in Diamond Processing
India handles roughly 90 percent of global diamond cutting and polishing, a capacity concentrated in Surat. The nation also wields strong institutional influence, chairing the Kimberley Process in 2026 and fielding leaders such as Mehul Shah, Kirit Bhansali and Anoop Mehta who shape worldwide policy.
Despite this clout, India has not moved to acquire an upstream mining operation even as De Beers becomes available at a historically low price.
De Beers’ Financial Troubles
When Anglo American bought the Oppenheimer family’s 40 percent stake in 2011, the deal implied an enterprise value of USD 12.75 billion. Subsequent impairments have erased much of that figure.
Write-downs now total USD 6.8 billion, leaving the unit’s carrying amount at USD 2.3 billion and generating an annual loss of USD 3.7 billion.
Current talks suggest Anglo could sell its 85 percent holding for roughly USD 1 billion, far below even the reduced book value.
In 2025 De Beers posted an underlying EBITDA loss of USD 511 million while its supply base contracted sharply.
Global rough-diamond production fell to 98.8 million carats in 2025, the lowest level recorded since the Kimberley Process began tracking data in 2004.
Production at the Venetia mine in South Africa has been on hold for two years, and the Canadian Gahcho Kué project faces delays. Meanwhile, the Okavango Diamond Company is set to receive about 50 percent of its allocation by 2035.
Future capital commitments are sizable; the Jwaneng underground project alone is estimated at USD 6 billion, while the primary rough market generates roughly USD 5 billion each year.
India’s Strategic Calculus
New Delhi has recently urged households to curb gold imports after purchases hit a record USD 71.98 billion.
India’s restraint does not stem from a lack of funds. Acquiring a 5-10 percent equity position in De Beers would cost between USD 59 million and USD 118 million, a fraction of a single week’s gold imports. The country’s decisive purchase of lithium assets in Argentina through KABIL shows it can deploy capital swiftly when a raw material is deemed strategically essential.
Instead, India appears to view upstream diamond mining as a non-strategic asset, preferring to maintain influence through its dominant processing sector.
Control over the polishing bottleneck grants considerable market power without the need for heavy capital outlays. Any new owner of De Beers would still rely on Surat’s capacity to turn rough stones into revenue, while operating under a regulatory framework heavily shaped by Indian institutions.
Future Scenarios and Risks
African producer nations are organizing around equity stakes and domestic allocations to capture more downstream value and lessen dependence on external cutting hubs.
